Dear MARMAM colleagues, On behalf of my co-authors, I am pleased to share our new open-acces publication in the journal Ecological Indicators, 160, March 2024, 111820: Authier, M. / Bouchard, C. <https://colinbouchard.gitlab.io/personal-website/> / Dars, C. / Spitz, S. A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Assessing trends and changes over time <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X24002772> In this short note, we used Extreme Value Theory to model and forecast the monthly maxima of small cetacean stranding along the seabord of mainland France. Forecasts are computed from the 2009-2014 period for 6 years-ahead and compared to observed data over the period 2015-2020 to infer on change in the intensity of pressures behind at-sea mortality events. The short-note discusses this work and how to use the forecasts as an indicator for informing the Marine Strategy Framework Directive and the good environmental status of small cetaceans. If you have any questions about our work, please reach out. Cheers, Matthieu Authier -- Matthieu Authier - Ingénieur de Recherche La Rochelle Université Observatoire Pelagis UAR 3462 CNRS-LRUniv 5 allée de l'océan 17 000 La Rochelle telephone: +00 33 (0)7 77 22 32 67 (remote-working/télé-travail) https://www.observatoire-pelagis.cnrs.fr/pelagis-2/lequipe/matthieu-authier/ Try again. Fail again. Fail better. (Samuel Beckett) Verzögerungen im Betriebsablauf (Deutsche Bahn) 🍍 🦉🐛