Dear list members
The paper below has just been published in PlosOne
Kaschner K, Tittensor DP, Ready J, Gerrodette T, Worm B, 2011 Current and
Future Patterns of Global Marine Mammal Biodiversity. PLoS ONE 6(5):
e19653. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0019653
Abstract
Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is an important
prerequisite for the preservation of biodiversity, and can provide a
baseline against which to measure the impacts of climate change. Here we
analyse patterns of marine mammal species richness based on predictions
of global distributional ranges for 115 species, including all extant
pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an environmental suitability model
specifically designed to address the paucity of distributional data for
many marine mammal species. We generated richness patterns by overlaying
predicted distributions for all species; these were then validated
against sightings data from dedicated long-term surveys in the Eastern
Tropical Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. Model
outputs correlated well with empirically observed patterns of
biodiversity in all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness was
predicted to be highest in temperate waters of both hemispheres with
distinct hotspots around New Zealand, Japan, Baja California, the
Galapagos Islands, the Southeast Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. We then
applied our model to explore potential changes in biodiversity under
future perturbations of environmental conditions. Forward projections of
biodiversity using an intermediate Intergovernmental Panel for Climate
Change (IPCC) temperature scenario predicted that projected ocean warming
and changes in sea ice cover until 2050 may have moderate effects on the
spatial patterns of marine mammal richness. Increases in cetacean
richness were predicted above 40° latitude in both hemispheres, while
decreases in both pinniped and cetacean richness were expected at lower
latitudes. Our results show how species distribution models can be
applied to explore broad patterns of marine biodiversity worldwide for
taxa for which limited distributional data are available.
The paper can be downloaded from PlosOne:
http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0019653
best regards
Kristin
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Kristin Kaschner, Ph.D.
Evolutionary Biology & Ecology Lab
Institute of Biology I (Zoology)
Albert-Ludwigs-University
Freiburg, Germany
ph: ++ 49 178 547 7760
email: Kristin.Kaschner@biologie.uni-freiburg.de
http://www.biologie.uni-freiburg.de/data/bio1/kaschner/index.html