Dear Colleagues,
Abstract
The
marine renewable energy industry is expanding as countries strive to
reach climate targets as set out in the Paris Agreement. For tidal
energy devices, the potential risk for animals to collide with a device,
particularly its moving parts such as rotor blades, is often a major
barrier in the consenting process. Theoretical work surrounding
collision risk has commonly made use of a formulaic modelling approach.
However, whilst providing a platform to assess conventional horizontal
axis tidal turbines, the frameworks applied lack the flexibility to
incorporate novel device designs or more complex animal movement
parameters (e.g. dive trajectories). To demonstrate the novel
simulation-based approach to estimating collision probabilities a
hypothetical case study was used to demonstrate how the approach can
assess the influence that variations in ecological and behavioural data
had on collision probabilities. To do this, a tidal kite moving in a 3D
figure-of-eight trajectory and a seal-shaped object were modelled and
variations to angle of approach, speed and size of the animal were made.
To further improve the collision risk estimates, results of the
simulations were post-processed by integrating a hypothetical dive
profile. The simulations showed how variation in the input parameters
and additional post-processing influence collision probabilities. Our
results demonstrate the potential for using this simulation-based
approach for assessing collision risk, highlighting the flexibility it
offers by way of incorporating empirical data or expert elicitation to
better inform the modelling process. This framework, where device type,
configuration and animal-related parameters can be varied with relative
simplicity, on a case-by-case basis, provides a more tailored tool for
assessing a diverse range of interactions between marine renewable
energy developments and receptors. In providing a robust and transparent
quantitative approach to addressing collision risk this flexible
approach can better inform the decision-making process and aid progress
with respect to developing a renewable energy industry in a sustainable
manner. Therefore, the approach outlined has clear applications that are
relevant to many stakeholders and can contribute to our ability to
ensure we achieve sustainable growth in the marine renewable energy
industry as part of a global strategy to combat climate change.
Citation
Horne,
N., Culloch, R. M., Schmitt, P., Lieber, L., Wilson, B., Dale, A. C.,
Houghton, J. D. R., Kregting, L. T. (2021). Collision risk modelling for
tidal energy devices: A flexible simulation-based approach. Journal of
Environmental Management. DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111484.
Many thanks,
Nicholas Horne
