Abstract: Recent climate change has triggered profound reorganization in northeast
Atlantic ecosystems, with substantial impact on the
distribution of marine assemblages from plankton to
fishes. However, assessing the repercussions on apex marine predators
remains a challenging issue, especially for pelagic
species. In this study, we use Bayesian coalescent modelling of
microsatellite
variation to track the population demographic
history of one of the smallest temperate cetaceans, the harbour porpoise
(Phocoena phocoena) in European waters. Combining genetic
inferences with palaeo-oceanographic and historical records provides
strong evidence
that populations of harbour porpoises have
responded markedly to the recent climate-driven reorganization in the
eastern North
Atlantic food web. This response includes the
isolation of porpoises in Iberian waters from those further north only
approximately
300 years ago with a predominant northward
migration, contemporaneous with the warming trend underway since the
‘Little Ice
Age’ period and with the ongoing retreat of
cold-water fishes from the Bay of Biscay. The extinction or exodus of
harbour
porpoises from the Mediterranean Sea (leaving an
isolated relict population in the Black Sea) has lacked a coherent
explanation.
The present results suggest that the fragmentation
of harbour distribution range in the Mediterranean Sea was triggered
during
the warm ‘Mid-Holocene Optimum’ period (approx.
5000 years ago), by the end of the post-glacial nutrient-rich ‘Sapropel’
conditions
that prevailed before that time.