Dear MARMAM community,

On behalf of my co-authors, I am pleased to inform our new publication in Aquatic Conservation. 

Climate change is likely to negatively affect a marine apex predator (Steno bredanensis, Cetacea) and its prey on the coast of Brazil

Juliane do Nascimento Ferreira, Mariana M. Vale, Guilherme Maricato, Israel Maciel, Liliane Lodi, Fabio G. Daura-Jorge, Lucas Milmann, Milton C.C. Marcondes, Rodrigo H. Tardin.

Abstract 

Climate change alters marine environments, affecting temperature, oxygen levels, and acidity, prompting species to relocate to suitable areas. Understanding these shifts is vital for top predators like cetaceans, crucial for marine ecosystem regulation. We mapped the highly suitable environments for the rough-toothed dolphin (Steno bredanensis)—considering its limited study in Brazil—and three of its prey: the largehead hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus), the lebranche mullet (Mugil liza), and the white mullet (Mugil curema). We used five modeling algorithms and 4-7 environmental variables to create ecological niche models, transformed into binary maps for interpretation. We also classified and overlaid Brazilian Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) with the rough-toothed dolphin's highly suitable environments using the MPA Guide. Under future climate change, we predicted an 8.7 to 13.6% reduction in highly suitable areas for the rough-toothed dolphins in Brazil, mainly in the country's Northern and Northeastern coast. We predicted a small loss of highly suitable areas for mullet species (3 to 7%) and a moderate loss for the largehead hairtail (31 to 35%). To date, only 3.7% of rough-toothed dolphin's highly suitable areas overlap with Brazilian MPAs, mainly in low-protection protected areas. Most highly suitable areas remain unprotected, and this situation is projected to persist under future climate scenarios. Our study reveals a significant range loss for rough-toothed dolphins and their prey in Northern and Northeastern Brazil because of climate change. Existing MPAs are inadequate, showing an urgent need for expansion.

The full paper can be found here 

Thank you,

Rodrigo