Hi all<br><br>We have a new paper in Journal of Applied Ecology linking foraging and breeding regions in grey seals in the UK.  Please see below:<br><br><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2664.12048/abstract">http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2664.12048/abstract</a><br>
<br><br>Summary<br>1. The annual cycle of many animals is characterized by the need to satisfy different life<br>history priorities, often requiring seasonal movements. For such species, investigating carryover<br>effects (such as the year-long drivers of breeding success) and managing protected areas<br>
effectively, relies on quantifying these movements. Here, we model the seasonal movements of<br>the UK population of grey seals <i>Halichoerus grypus</i> and show how insights from the model<br>can improve its management.<br>
2. We fit a hidden process model to two types of information – regional population redistribution<br>and individual movements – to estimate the seasonal transition probabilities of breeding<br>female grey seals among four regions around the UK.<br>
3. We found that between 21% and 58% of females used different regions for breeding and<br>foraging.<br>4. For our study period, we detected an increase in the breeding performance of animals that<br>foraged in the Hebrides and South-East Coast.<br>
5. Grey seal Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) were designed to encompass a significant<br>proportion of the UK breeding population: ~ 40% of the breeding females in our study area.<br>Of the females breeding on SACs, only 15% breed in Northern Scotland, but up to 50% forage<br>
there. Our results indicate that, by only considering the breeding distribution of females<br>that breed in SACs, the impact of anthropogenic activities on nearby SACs may be overestimated,<br>whereas impacts on remote SACs may be underestimated.<br>
6. Synthesis and applications. By quantifying the link between the foraging and breeding distributions<br>of grey seals, management of breeding populations can be focused on the foraging<br>regions where the resources necessary for reproduction are acquired. The construction of marine<br>
developments is dependent on demonstrating that they will not have an adverse effect on<br>the integrity of Special Areas of Conservation (SACs), and we have shown that this requires<br>consideration of the seasonal transition probabilities estimated in this study. Our specific<br>
results provide support for management strategies that jointly consider SACs and Marine<br>Protected Areas (MPAs). More generally, we prescribe combinations of data on population<br>size, breeding performance and individual movement that can enable our framework to be<br>
applied to seasonally migrating species.<br><br>Key-words: Bayesian statistics, capital breeding, individually referenced data, integrated<br>modelling, marine conservation, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, migration, pinnipeds, site<br>
fidelity, WinBUGS<br><br>Best wishes<br><br>Debbie<br><br><br>-- <br>***********************************************<br>Dr Debbie Russell<br>Sea Mammal Research Unit (SMRU)<br>Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Monitoring (CREEM)<br>
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